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A few notes of my own prior to jumping into the official report:

In Q3 2019 there's a sense of economic uncertainty despite low unemployment, a robust stock market, and continued economic growth. For many of my buyers with recent memories of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 it's important to remember - a recession does not equal a housing crisis! For 3 out of 5 of the last recessions home prices have actually increased with 2008 being one that was housing-driven that's unlikely to be repeated in the next economic cycle. 

Per the chart below, there was a perceived spike in real estate pricing in Q2 2019 as buyers raced to closer their bigger ticket transactions before the new mansion tax rules kicked in on July 1. While prices slipped further, the drop in Q3 2019 isn't as significant as the chart below would suggest - just the incentives to save money ahead of new tax rules were eliminated.

Another contributor to the gradual slip in some segments of the Manhattan market is supply. Sellers markets typically have less than 6 months of supply. More than 6 months favor buyers. Anecdotally one first-time homebuyer I'm working with was incredibly pleased with an accepted offer to pay 10% less than what the seller had paid back in 2015. Others are upgrading the size of their apartments to facilitate transitions in life - realizing any loss on a purchase a few years ago will be usurped by the gains on a larger apartment in a soft market.

Full report below!


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